If there were ever a time for me to overanalyze something for no particular reason at all, the time is now. This is a frame-by-frame breakdown of everything I saw in the trailer.

First, there’s a piano melody right at the beginning of the trailer. It’s a reprise of the Ace Combat 5 song “15 Years Ago” that played during the exposition drop at the beginning of the game. The melody in question was a sort of musical motif throughout Ace Combat 5. No idea what the significance of it is. Could be recycled music for the sake of a trailer, or a nod that this will somehow involve the plot of Ace Combat 5.

Then there’s this person. Not sure who they are, as there’s not much context. They’re standing on what’s revealed to be the side of a space elevator (codename Lighthouse, if I interpret the pilots correctly).

Space elevators have never been a thing in Ace Combat up until this point. As I recall, they weren’t even in Electrosphere (I could be wrong or this may be a retcon), which has some interesting implications moving forward in the trailer. As Ace Combat takes inspiration for real life, the space elevator is located on the water: one of the suggested places for space elevators in speculative science.

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The F-22 seen here seems to be modern with very few modifications, suggesting this game doesn’t take place long after the latest game in the series (which took place in 2015). The Raptor also has an Osean marking, meaning the Oseans seem to be defending this space elevator. Note that the aircraft don’t seem to be as advanced as the Ace Combat 3: Electrosphere fighters. This takes place before Electrosphere, but I don’t believe Electrosphere had space elevators. It’s either a retcon, or this space elevator surviving this game isn’t likely.

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The bad guys seem to have another giant aircraft.

The second fighter (an SU-27 or 33) (Update: SU-30M as pointed out by Mobius 1) has Erusean markings, meaning that Erusea and Osea are likely in a state of open war. Erusea was the aggressor of Ace Combat 4, and was subsequently put down by a coalition of states named ISAF. Osea, on the other hand, was the protagonist’s nation in Ace Combat 5. It’s important to note that Osea and Erusea are not located near one another, as Osea is on the Osean continent, while Erusea is on Usea. There’s an ocean between them, and this battle is taking place over an ocean...

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The missiles the Osean craft fire are OP man.

There’s at least one more enemy fighter in the area. Because it seems to be an Su-27 or 33, it’s probably the same squadron as the now shot-down Erusean fighter.

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Our mystery person is a member of something called ISEV. They have a suit built for high-altitude work, but not outer space. Possibly a maintenance worker on the space elevator. Given that they have an ISEV badge, I take that to mean that ISEV runs the space elevator. ISEV might be a supranational organization that maintains the elevator, and that might be why it’s located in the ocean, in effect international waters. The real question is, why are Erusea and Osea fighting nearby?

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UAVs from the large craft. They look like Vogels, or the UAVs prominently used by the Belkans in the Circum-Pacific War, but that’s likely white-noise. It’s probably just a generic UAV.

The mystery person jumps. It’s not clear why, but I’ve got one conjecture.

There’s a red light flashing next to them. It could be an evacuation signal for the space elevator, and the fastest way off is to jump. This could mean that the elevator is being overrun by the aggressor forces.

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I don’t think they made it though.

Okay, I’m done now. Did I miss anything?